Prognostic factors associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis: a case-control study in Brazil

Background: The aim of this study was to identify the prognostic factors associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) considering the clinical evolution of patients through a case-control study. Methods: We randomly selected 180 cases (death caused by VL) and 180 controls (cured) from Belo Horizonte's hospitals in Brazil, according to data found in the patients' medical records. Five models of multivariate logistic regression were performed following the chronological order of the variables between the onset of the symptoms and evolution of the VL cases. Results: Considering the multivariate models and the stages of clinical evolution of VL, the prognostic factors associated with death are: age >60 y, minor hemorrhagic phenomena, increased abdominal volume, jaundice, dyspnea, malnutrition, TB, billirubin >2 mg/dL, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) or Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT) >100 U/L, leukocytes >7000/mm(3), hemoglobin <7 g/dL, platelets <50000/mm(3) and infection without defined focus and bleeding. Conclusions: Knowledge regarding the prognostic factors associated with death from VL in different stages of the disease in large Brazilian urban centers such as Belo Horizonte may help optimize patient management strategies and contribute to reduce the high fatality rates in these cities.