Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China

被引：12

作者：

Cao, Jing ^{[1
,2
]}

Ho, Mun S. ^{[3
]}

Hu, Wenhao ^{[4
]}

Jorgenson, Dale ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Tsinghua Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Shunde 128, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[2] Tsinghua Univ, Hang Lung Ctr Real Estate, Shunde 128, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[3] John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm, Cambridge, MA USA

[4] Tianjin Univ, Ma Yinchu Sch Econ, Tianjin, Peoples R China

[5] Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

来源：

CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2020年 / 61卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Effective labor supply; GDP growth; China; FORCE PARTICIPATION; PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; URBAN CHINA;

D O I：

10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101398

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth: further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment; improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization; and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40% for 2015-2030 compared to -0.60% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80% for 2015-2030 compared to 5.23% if these factors are ignored.

引用

页数：21

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