Spatial-temporal evolution of the eastern Nanhui mudflat in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary under intensified human activities

The eastern Nanhui mudflat (ENM), located in the southern flank of the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary, plays a key role in storm protection, defense against sea level rise, and land resource provision for Shanghai, China's largest city. Recently, there has been a great deal of concern for its evolutionary fate, since a drastic reduction in the Changjiang sediment discharge rate and an increased number of estuarine enclosures might negatively impact the environmental protection functions that this mudflat provides. In this paper, a novel method, which employed the envelope lines of instantaneous shoreline positions identified in 436 Landsat satellite images from 1975 to 2016, was used to demonstrate the evolution of the mudflat high and low tide lines in a detailed, quantitative way. Our study reveals the southeast progradation rate of the mudflat doubled from 24 m/yr in 713-1974 CE to 49 m/yr in 1975-1995 CE, probably due to the influence of the estuarine turbidity maximum zone shifting to the ENM. Under the ample sediment input directly from the turbidity maximum zone, the spatial evolution of the ENM was governed predominantly by the changing morphology of the South Passage due to the quick progradation of the ENM, which narrowed the South Passage by pushing the South Passage Trumpet southeastward. Therefore, the ENM experienced rapid accretion during 1975-2016. The accretion rate of the high tide line increased 2-13 times due to vegetation and intertidal enclosures, resulting in the rapid reduction of the intertidal area. The area decreased from 97 km(2) in 1976 to 66 km(2) in 1995, mainly due to vegetation, and continued decreasing to 12 km(2) in 2006 due to the intertidal enclosures. In contrast, the accretion rate of the low tide line increased by 25 times due to subtidal enclosures and caused the intertidal area increased to 78 km(2) in 2015. The almost disappeared intertidal zones in 2006 reappeared. However, this reappearance might be a temporary transitional state, and once the subtidal enclosures are completed, most of the intertidal zones will be replaced by enclosure land. Our study reveals that the drastic reduction in the Changjiang sediment flow to the sea has not caused a decline in the ENM. In contrast, the ENM has experienced rapid accretion in the past 40 years, resulting in the strengthening of its functional abilities to protect Shanghai, an unexpected outcome. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.