Opportunity for selection in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina):: the effect of spatial scale of analysis

The opportunity for selection, I, calculated as the variance in relative fitness, sets an upper limit to the amount of adaptive change that selection may produce. Therefore, it is a potentially valuable, and frequently used, measure of the potential of action of phenotypic selection. Although many different aspects of I calculation and analysis have been explored, the effect of the spatial scale chosen for calculation received little attention, notwithstanding the growing evidence that natural populations are not homogeneous and present a hierarchical spatial structure. The effect of scale on the estimation of I was examined from data collected in two populations of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), an easily observable and strongly polygynous species. A significant effect of spatial scale on three important aspects of I calculation and analysis was found: dependence of I on mean fitness, between population variation of I, and effect of local demography on I.