Prediction of China's energy consumption structure

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the situation and trend of China's energy consumption structure and predict it. Design/methodology/approach - Starting from the situation of China's energy consumption structure, a quadratic programming model is created to analyze the trend of it. A homogeneous Markov chain is chosen to predict China's energy consumption structure with the data collected from China's Statistical Yearbook. Finally, the implication of the prediction is explained. Findings - The results are convincing: the substitution of different energies are found, China will not enter the oil era, natural gas and non-fossil energy will rapidly develop. Practical implications - The results of this article can provide an important basis for the government to make a non-fossil energy development plan and energy policies. Originality/value - The paper succeeds in revealing and predicting China's energy consumption structure by quadratic programming and homogeneous Markov chain.