The Korean security choice: Feasibility of a multilateral security system

Post-Cold War Northeast Asia manifests both continuity and change. The dramatic changes in the history of economic development and the sustaining security problems revolving around the Korean peninsula can be identified as the best examples of this type of contrast. The future of post-Cold War Northeast Asia is also likely to be projected in the continuation of this continuity-and-change dynamic. This will lead the future of the Northeast Asia security order in two differing directions: bilateralism and multilateralism. The most important factor influencing which direction Northeast Asia will go is the dynamics of the power balancing game among the regional actors. Four possible scenarios are conceivable for the new security order of Northeast Asia. First is the reinforcement of "multipolar subsystem." In this framework, continuous US presence and the rise of China are assumed. Second, if the US reduces its influence in the region while Japan-China rivalry rises, either multilateral security cooperation or a tighter multipolarity may emerge. Third, middle powers will rise as the initiators of a multilateral security cooperation without further depending upon a bilateral alliance. Last is the rise of a "regional great-power concert." Multilateralism will develop as the result of a matured power balancing among major powers. Given these possible scenarios, four strategic options are available to Korea: reinforcement of the existing bilateral alliance, equidistance balancer, neutrality, and multilateral security cooperation. The strategic choice will be made mainly on the basis of the following three criteria. First, a new strategy should not introduce direct confrontation with a newly dominant power. Second, a new strategy should be strongly supported by the great powers. Finally, a new security option should provide "strategic reassurance." Having said that, neither "neutrality" nor the "equidistance balancer" strategies can be considered a viable security option considering the limitations of Korea's autonomous military capabilities and lack of assured guarantee for peace and security by the neighboring countries. The given reality is that Korea is stable and peaceful under the US-ROK bilateral alliance. However, considering the possibility that the US adopts new approaches to ensure a new security order in Northeast Asia, Korea also needs to consider an alternative to the bilateral alliance, that is, multilateral security cooperation. Also, as long as it is attempted with the strong backbone of a solid US-ROK alliance, Korea may even play the most effective and appropriate role in the initiation of multilateral security cooperation in the region.