Uncertainty and Risk Evaluation of Deep Geothermal Energy Source for Heat Production and Electricity Generation in Remote Northern Regions

The Canadian off-grid communities heavily rely on fossil fuels. This unsustainable energetic framework needs to change, and deep geothermal energy can play an important role. However, limited data availability is one of the challenges to face when evaluating such resources in remote areas. Thus, a first-order assessment of the geothermal energy source is, therefore, needed to trigger interest for further development in northern communities. This is the scope of the present work. Shallow subsurface data and outcrop samples treated as subsurface analogs were used to infer the deep geothermal potential beneath the community of Kuujjuaq (Nunavik, Canada). 2D heat conduction models with time-varying upper boundary condition reproducing climate events were used to simulate the subsurface temperature distribution. The available thermal energy was inferred with the volume method. Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the main geological and technical uncertainties on the deep geothermal potential and risk analysis to forecast future energy production. The results obtained, although speculative, suggest that the old Canadian Shield beneath Kuujjuaq host potential to fulfill the community's annual average heating demand of 37 GWh. Hence, deep geothermal energy can be a promising solution to support the energy transition of remote northern communities.