Resilience to increasing temperatures: residential building stock adaptation through codes and standards

The resilience of the current Spanish residential building stock to increased temperatures is modelled. Homogenized daily temperature data recorded at 50 Spanish meteorological stations for the periods 1950-1979 and 1981-2010 were used to investigate anticipated climate warming on the Spanish residential building stock by means of the degree-day method. Impacts on residential buildings were investigated for three different future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) for three representative Spanish provincial capitals. Future climate change scenarios comprising two statistical downscaling methods, three general circulation models and two carbon emission scenarios were used to project local climate. Results show that 72% of current residential building stock in Spain is thermally unprotected. In addition, the energy demand for heating the building sector in Spain is expected to decrease by between 30% (Barcelona, B2 scenario) and 36% (Valencia, A2 scenario) by 2100, while the respective energy demand for cooling could increase by between 107% (Valencia, B2 scenario) and 296% (Madrid, A2 scenario) by 2100. To increase resilience to higher winter and summer temperatures, strategies for modifying the built environment are needed, particularly for the role of building codes and standards.