Early transition stages and heterogeneity in criminal careers among young offenders

We investigate distinctive patterns of police contacts among heterogeneous subpopulations of youths in the early transition stages of their criminal careers. We argue that research focussing upon heterogeneity and the initial transition stages of criminality can provide insights into behavioural dynamics previously overlooked in the study of the onset and development of criminal careers. Using computerized police archival data from a large western Canadian city, we employ event history survival models to estimate patterns of onset and persistence for delinquent careers over six-month intervals in the early stages of police contact. Our results provide strong evidence of meaningful short-term change in offending among multiple levels of youth subgroups. Some youths appear to offend only briefly and then desist, while others continue offending and at a higher rate. However, there also appear to be patterns of heterogeneity within as well as between these subgroups of young offenders during the early stages of criminal careers.