Response of Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen (Orthoptera: Acrididae) to climate warming over the Tibetan plateau

As a region with one of the most important terrestrial ecosystems, the Tibetan plateau is both sensitive to and vulnerable to climate warming. Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen, an endemic species on the Tibetan plateau, is likely to be affected by climatic warming. In our studies, accumulated degree-days (ADD) of L.similar to Migratoria T.C. were calculated based on data from 90 weather stations over the Tibetan plateau from 1961 to 2005. Trend lines show that across weather stations, ADD increased at a rate of 1.17 DD/a during climate warming. The majority of weather stations (82.2%) showing increases in ADD were located towards the west of the Tibetan plateau. At higher elevations, the increase in the ratio of annual ADD to the station mean ADD was higher relative to those at lower elevations. A linear regression model between ADD and geographical position was established to create raster maps of ADD in ArcGIS 9.2. The area of potential locust distribution (APD) was estimated to be 42 420 km(2), mostly distributed along major rivers on the Tibetan plateau. In warmer years, the APD increased sharply over study periods. A new area of potential distribution would appear in the north Tibetan plateau if the climate warming continued. In the south-east Tibetan plateau, the locust would expand its range northwards or westwards along the river valleys, and the locust APD would also rise in elevation.