Tourism Income of Turkey: A Panel Data Approach

Today tourism has become a much more important opportunity for any government. Authorities orientate their economies to gain more tourism income. The aim of this study is to analyze tourism income and to find a model for forecasting. Turkey's tourism income was explained by number of tourists. Expenditures of foreign visitors accessed from questionnaires of departing visitors. Quarterly data is analyzed for the years 2006 to 2015. Tourism income is modelled with panel data method. Nationalities of the departing visitors are used as cross sections. Lagged values of both dependent and independent variables were significant. A methodological change of data compiling technique is also investigated with structural change approach and found significant. Some linear and nonlinear models are estimated for forecasting. Seasonal effects were also investigated. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.