Seasonal probability of precipitation forecasts using a weighted ensemble approach

被引：3
|
作者：
Shin, D. W. [1 ]
Kang, S. -D. [2 ]
Cocke, S. [1 ]
Goo, T. -Y. [3 ]
Kim, H. -D. [4 ]
机构：
[1] Florida State Univ, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA
[2] Korea Meteorol Adm, Climate Predict Div, Seoul 156720, South Korea
[3] Korea Meteorol Adm, Korea Global Atmosphere Watch Ctr, Seoul 156720, South Korea
[4] Keimyung Univ, Dept Environm Conservat, Taegu 704701, South Korea
来源：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY | 2008年 / 28卷 / 14期
关键词：
seasonal precipitation; weighted ensemble; probabilistic forecast; multi-model;
D O I：
10.1002/joc.1690
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
A weighted ensemble (WE) method is revisited and employed to issue an improved seasonal probability of precipitation (POP) forecast. Nine boreal summer time seasonal precipitation hindcasts obtained from the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble system are used to assess the suitability of the WE approach for seasonal POP predictions. Owing to its performance-based selective nature for assigning weights, the WE method produced marginally superior seasonal POP forecasts compared to the conventional approach. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
引用
收藏
页码：1971 / 1976
页数：6
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