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The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

被引：16
|
作者：
Kala, Namrata [1 ]
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep [2 ]
Mendelsohn, Robert [1 ]
机构：
[1] Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA
[2] United Nations Dev Program, New York, NY USA
来源：
ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS | 2012年 / 17卷
关键词：
GREENHOUSE-GAS; AGRICULTURE; EMISSIONS; COVER;
D O I：
10.1017/S1355770X12000241
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070-2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.
引用
收藏
页码：663 / 687
页数：25
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