The Six-Party Talks in the Post-Kim Jong-il Era: An Emergent Path toward a Northeast Asian Security Mechanism

This article examines the viability of the Six-Party Talks and the prospects of their transformation into a Northeast Asian security mechanism in the post-Kim Jong-il era. This analysis draws on the concepts of "path dependence" and "path emergence." The concept of path dependence is used to explain the viability of the Six-Party Talks, whereas the concept of path emergence is elaborated upon to explain the causes underlying the emergent path of the six-party process. This article suggests that the dynamics of self-organized criticality triggered by the death of Kim Jong-il will start to work for path emergence on the Korean Peninsula.