Application of optimistic pdes techniques to performing real-time predictive battle planning for national missile defense

Ballistic Missile Defense Organization's (BMDO's) Innovative Science and Technology (IS&T) Program sponsors research programs having the potential to significantly advance current state-of-the-art in parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) technology, high-speed communications, distributed computing architectures, and automated decision support. This paper examines the definition of and requirements for performing real-time battle planning, as well as, presents results of IS&T-supported research investigating the applicability of optimistic PDES (O-PDES) techniques to performing faster-than-real-time defense evaluation The requirement for this capability in future Battle Management/Command, Control and Communications (BM/C-3) systems is derived from the understanding that a real-time defense planning capability will require a faster-than-real-time defense evaluation capability. Such a capability would permit execution of hundreds of full-scale system simulations with various threats, configurations, and resources in a sufficiently short amount of time that results could be evaluated and provided to the decision-maker, enabling Ballistic more effective decision making on the battlefield. Results of research performed to demonstrate the applicability of O-PDES technology, specifically Georgia Tech TimeWarp (GTW), to performing faster-than-real-time defense evaluation for a Theater Missile Defense (TMD) BM/C3 application are presented. Integration of this technology into a National Missile Defense (NMD) Look-Ahead Battle Planner (LABP) is also discussed. The goal of this effort is to develop an enhanced version of the NMD LABP with the potential to run hundreds of times faster, providing decision-makers with more, and potentially better, decision options within the existing decision space.