How to Indicate Change-points in Economic Development

The first decade of the new millennium has brought to the world economy and to national economies several shocks and substantially increased the risk of uncertainty. The causes of these shocks varied during that period and stemmed from the mortgage crisis, the crisis in the banking sector or the problematic parameters in fiscal economies of individual countries, especially those in Europe. These causes were often interrelated, and, respectively, they followed each other in relatively quick succession. The article shows how to use the probit analysis to indicate the possible twists and turns in the development of economy based on high probability of their occurrence. Along with the probit analysis method, Koyck linear dynamic model with time-lagged independent (explanatory) variable is also used, which allow for setting the advance of those indicators that can affect economic development and mark the regime change-points.