CO2and Air Pollutants Emissions under Different Scenarios Predicted by a Regional Energy Consumption Modeling System for Shanghai, China

About 75% energy demand and emissions all concentrate in urban areas, especially in the metropolises, placing a heavy burden on both the energy supply system and the environment system. To explore low emission pathways and provide policy recommendations for the Shanghai energy system and the environmental system to reach the carbon dioxide (CO2) peak by 2030 and attain emission reduction targets for local air pollutants (LAPs), a regional energy-environment optimization model was developed in this study, considering system costs, socio-economic development and technology. To verify the reliability of the model simulation and evaluate the model risk, a historical scenario was defined to calculate the emissions for 2004-2014, and the data were compared with the bottom-up emission inventory results. By considering four scenarios, we simulated the energy consumption and emissions in the period of 2020-2030 from the perspective of energy policies, economic measures and technology updates. We found that CO(2)emissions might exceed the amount of 250 million tons by the end of 2020 under the current policy, and carbon tax with a price of 40 CNY per ton of carbon dioxide is an imperative measure to lower carbon emissions. Under the constraints, the emissions amount of SO2, NOx, PM10, and PM(2.5)will be reduced by 95.3-180.8, 207.8-357.1, 149.4-274.5, and 59.5-119.8 Kt in 2030, respectively.