Energy Demand Model of the Household Sector and Its Application in Developing Metropolitan Cities (Case Study: Tehran)

Excessive energy consumption is one of the serious problems of large cities in Iran. In order to avoid unreasonable growth in energy use as well as conservation of natural resources, more attention should be paid to energy consumption patterns in metropolitan cities. Accordingly, the current study aims at analyzing energy demand and its related pollutants in the household sector in Tehran Metropolitan. The study includes a discussion of past trends and future scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this sector. Using LEAP software and according to Iran's long-term development policies, energy demand and its greenhouse gas emissions were evaluated based on a baseline scenario within a long-term horizon (from 2011 to 2036). Energy demand was analyzed in the form of seven alternative scenarios. The obtained results indicated that natural gas consumption will increase to 21,084 MCM by the year 2036. In addition, the electricity consumption rate will grow to 21,084 million kWh over the studied period, if the current trend of consumption continues. The findings also revealed that maximum energy savings (equal to 23%) can be achieved by implementing Note 19 of National Building Regulations until 2036. Consequently, with implementation of this law, around 21.7% of total greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced in Tehran.