AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR FORECASTING WHEAT CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN: EMPHASIZING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS

Wheat is one of the most commonly consumed foods on the Indian subcontinent, especially in Pakistan. It is difficult to find literature regarding wheat consumption forecasting, although some researchers have already focused on wheat production forecasting. Time-series modeling has been adopted with only historical data on wheat, while several influential factors have been neglected. This paper proposes that historical consumption data cannot provide complete information and lacks the power to forecast future values accurately; thus, a simple but powerful model is derived that includes economic and social factors. The proposed model is also compared with conventional approaches, demonstrating its ability to capture highly efficient and accurate forecasts.