COMPARISON OF PIONEER 10, VOYAGER 1, AND VOYAGER 2 ULTRAVIOLET OBSERVATIONS WITH ANTI-SOLAR LYMAN-ALPHA BACKSCATTER SIMULATIONS

Observations made by ultraviolet (UV) detectors on board Pioneer 10, Voyager 1, and Voyager 2 can be used to analyze the distribution of neutral hydrogen throughout the heliosphere, including the interaction regions of the solar wind and local interstellar medium. Previous studies of the long-term trend of decreasing intensity with increasing heliocentric distance established the need for more sophisticated heliospheric models. Here we use state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) neutral models to simulate Lyman-alpha backscatter as would be seen by the three spacecrafts, exploiting a new 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer code under solar minimum conditions. Both observations and simulations of the UV backscatter intensity are normalized for each spacecraft flight path at similar to 15 AU, and we focus on the slope of decreasing intensity over an increasing heliocentric distance. Comparisons of simulations with Voyager 1 Lyman-alpha data results in a very close match, while the Pioneer 10 comparison is similar due to normalization, but not considered to be in agreement. The deviations may be influenced by a low resolution of photoionization in the 3D MHD-neutral model, a lack of solar cycle activity in our simulations, and possibly issues with instrumental sensitivity. Comparing the slope of Voyager 2 and the simulated intensities yields an almost identical match. Our results predict a large increase in the Lyman-alpha intensity as the hydrogen wall is approached, which would signal an imminent crossing of the heliopause.