STABILIZATION AND COMMITMENT: FORWARD GUIDANCE IN ECONOMIES WITH RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS

We construct a theory of forward guidance in economic policy making in order to provide a framework for explaining the role and strategic advantages of including forward guidance as an explicit part of policy design. We do this by setting up a general policy problem in which forward guidance plays a role, and then examine the consequences for performance when that guidance is withdrawn. We show that forward guidance provides enhanced controllability and stabilizability-especially where such properties may not otherwise be available. As a by-product, we find that forward guidance limits the scope and incentives for time-inconsistent behavior in an economy whose policy goals are ultimately reachable. It also adds to the credibility of a set of policies.