Median statistics in polling

In 2004, we used a very simple, but surprisingly effective, method to successfully predict the outcome of the U. S. Presidential election. Using the median poll in the last month for each state, we correctly predicted the results in all states but one (Hawaii). Just as we had originally hoped, the method made it possible to predict successfully the results in the large close states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) where there were a great many polls taken. States with only a few polls were generally not close, and so the median poll also predicted these states successfully. The method appears particularly well adapted to U. S. Presidential elections where the candidates are chosen well in advance, and where outcomes in individual states determine the winner. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.