A SYSTEM-DYNAMICS-BASED WATER SHORTAGE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR HUMAN AND ECOSTEMS IN TIANJIN CITY, CHINA

被引：0

作者：

Wang, Binglong ^{[1
]}

Cai, Yanpeng ^{[1
,2
]}

Wang, Xuan ^{[1
]}

Sun, Lian ^{[1
]}

Tan, Qian ^{[3
]}

Li, Ran ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Sichuan Univ, State Key Lab Hydraul & Mt River Engn, Chengdu, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK, Canada

来源：

FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN | 2016年 / 25卷 / 11期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Early warning system; Water supply and demand; System dynamics; water shortage risks; SIMULATION; MANAGEMENT; SECURITY; MODEL;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

An early warning system of water shortage was established through using a system dynamics (SD) software package (i.e., Stella) and was applied in the city of Tianjin. Detailed information and data related to water supply by local and external sources were examined. Water demands by indigenous ecosystems and socioeconomic sector were obtained in the city. Also, multiple scenarios of the implementation of water related policies and strategies including water transfer projects were developed over 2013 to 2030. Sensitivity analysis was conducted in the system, indicating that it was sensitive to the "industrial water use per 10,000 RMB Yuan output value" and the "total population growth". The developed early warning system can reflect water shortage risks not only for human beings but also for indigenous ecosystems.

引用

页码：4578 / 4588

页数：11

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