Weight, height, weight change, and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in middle-aged men and women

Background: Anthropometric factors are reported to be risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is unclear whether weight change in mid-life is associated with AF. We aimed to study the possible associations of weight, height, and weight change with the risk of incident AF in men and women. Methods: Our study cohort included 108 417 persons (51% women) who participated in a population-based health examination in northern Sweden at 30, 40, 50, or 60 years of age. The health examination included weight and height measurement and collection of data regarding cardiovascular risk factors. Within this cohort, 40 275 participants underwent two health examinations with a 10-year interval. We identified cases with a first-ever diagnosis of AF through the Swedish National Patient Registry. Results: During a total follow-up of 1 469 820 person-years, 5154 participants developed incident AF. The mean age at inclusion was 46.3 years, and mean age at AF diagnosis was 66.6 years. After adjustment for potential confounders, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and body surface area (BSA) were positively associated with risk of incident AF in both men and women. Among participants who underwent two health examinations 10 years apart, 1142 persons developed AF. The mean weight change from baseline was a gain of 4.8%. Weight gain or weight loss was not significantly associated with risk of incident AF. Conclusions: Height, weight, BMI, and BSA showed positive associations with risk of incident AF in both men and women. Midlife weight change was not significantly associated with AF risk.