Testing the limits of elite influence on public opinion: An examination of sports facility referendums

A great deal of scholarly research has demonstrated that elites have considerable influence over the preference formation process of individuals. What scholars understand less is just how far the influence of elites extends. We test the potential limits of elite influence by examining the public opinion dynamics that surrounded referendums raising local taxes to finance the construction of new professional sports stadiums and arenas in the United States from 1984 to August 2000. Our research concludes that the shape of elite opinion does indeed matter, with a united elite positively affecting the likelihood that referendums will be approved. An independent effect for the degree of elite unity exists even when controlling for campaign expenditures, the public's share of the cost of building sports facilities, and pre-existing public support for the proposals.