Modeling Analysis of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain based on Auto-regressive Analysis

With development of economic globalization, people have realized gradually that competition among enterprises has converted to competition among supply chain. Based on this condition, research on supply chain home and abroad is heating up gradually at present, while efficiency of the supply chain is the hot point in it. As one of the most notable phenomena influencing the supply chain, Bullwhip Effect has been paid great attention. It refers to the phenomenon that requirement information of end user on the supply chain goes along the supply chain and gradually expands upstream. Due to it causes a series of problems such as chaos in production and management, increase of inventory as well as occupation of capital, which has seriously influenced business efficiency of enterprises. Therefore, conducting systematic analysis and comprehensive research on it has important theoretical and practical significance.