The predictability problems in numerical weather and climate prediction

被引：76

作者：

Mu, M ^{[1
]}

Duan, WS ^{[1
]}

Wang, JC ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, LASG, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China

来源：

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES | 2002年 / 19卷 / 02期

关键词：

predictability; weather; climate; numerical model; optimization;

D O I：

10.1007/s00376-002-0016-x

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The Uncertainties caused by the errors of the initial states and the parameters in the numerical model are investigated. Three problems of predictability in numerical weather and climate prediction are proposed, which are related to the maximum predictable time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum admissible errors of the initial values and the parameters in the model respectively. The three problems are then formulated into nonlinear optimization problems, Effective approaches to deal with these nonlinear optimization problems are provided, The Lorenz' model is employed to demonstrate how to use these ideas in dealing with these three problems.

引用

页码：191 / 204

页数：14

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