A sequential group decision-making approach to strategic planning for the development of commercial vehicle operations systems

This paper explores a new sequential decision methodology which integrates a generalized sequential probability ratio testing approach with a strategy-value matrix analytical tool to determine the developmental priorities of commercial vehicle operations (CVO) technical packages for CVO time-based strategic planning. The proposed method executes a sequential decision algorithm utilizing the strategic elements of strategy-value matrices which are estimated on the basis of the data collected from the survey respondents. In the process of sequential decision making, the identification of a specific CVO value-added technology package can be made once the condition of the minimum group decision-making cost is met. In addition to methodology development, a real case study together with a nation-wide mail survey to aid the estimation of the strategy-value matrix samples which were used as inputs to the proposed sequential decision algorithm was conducted in Taiwan to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Utilizing the proposed method, we determined efficiently the developmental priorities of CVO technology packages for short-term, mid-term, and long-term strategic plans, respectively. Our analyses results indicated that the CVO package used for fleet management appears to be the most urgently needed in the short-term CVO strategic plan; value-added technology packages including: (1) data warehousing, (2) information technology, (3) integration with the supply chain management (SCM) platform, (4) freight mobility, (5) integration with advanced traffic management systems (ATMS), and (6) extension for intermodal operations are assigned to the mid-term CVO strategic plan; and others including: (1) freight administration, (2) HAZMAT management, (3) on-board safety monitoring, and (4) roadside safety inspections are involved in the long-term CVO strategic plan. We expect that this study can make available the proposed decision-making support method with benefits not only for planning CVO development strategies, but also for re-examining the role of commercial vehicle operations in a comprehensive extent. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.