A non-linear dynamical prediction model for superficial scald development on 'Granny Smith' apples after cold storage

This model was developed, to fulfil a need created by the fact that, in any highly interactive system, there is a tendency for a drift to occur in the equilibrium state which causes difficulties in the application of statistical methods based on regression techniques. The cause and effect model described in this article is based on the introduction of dynamics into the system, and is related to the theory of deterministic chaos (non-linear dynamics). Assumptions which are implicit in the use of regression techniques do not apply in this computer program (model), which calculates the drift of all the relevant variables and places these into the context of a multivariate, dynamic, cause and effect (input-output) matrix. From this matrix, by relating the vectors of the variables simultaneously, it is possible to obtain the relative overall vector and non-linear vector effects for all of the variables being used in a general research and management control system. By this means the information which may be obtained from statistical experiments may be enhanced.