Contribution of atmospheric moisture transport to winter Arctic warming

Atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) is known to have an influence on the winter Arctic surface air temperature (SAT). However, a systematic investigation involving a verification of the physical linkages and spatial sensitivity within the Arctic, as well as a quantification of such contribution is still lacking. Our work first verifies the variation coherence between AMT and the SAT over the winters of 1979-2015, based on multiple data sets. Climate model projections reveal tendencies towards more frequent high values in both SAT and AMT from 2010 to 2065 relative to that from 1950 to 2005, as well as a high correlation coefficient between their detrended series. Then, a composite analysis is applied based on different AMT values. During high-AMT episodes, enhanced AMT intrudes into the Arctic, with the Norwegian Sea as the gateway, and further induces unevenly distributed warming inside the Arctic. The greatest warming occurs in the Barents-Kara Sea, which is tightly associated with the altered atmospheric moisture content and its subsequent changes of surface radiation balance. In addition, the intruding moisture can induce latent heat release and sea ice melting, which also influences the warming. Furthermore, by conducting numerical model experiments in the winter of 2012/2013, a total warming effect of 9.66 degrees C averaged across the Arctic for the original AMT is revealed. By setting different incremental AMT values in five cases, the leading role of AMT is found to switch in the 0.5MT case (the case wherein the AMT value is 0.5 times the original) from altering the atmospheric moisture content to producing precipitation. This finding suggests that evenly spaced AMTs result in the alleviation of SAT increases.