Caries experience and sucrose availability: an analysis of the relationship in the United Kingdom over fifty years

Objective A previous study suggested that the most likely explanation for the rise and subsequent fall in caries in children in England and Wales during the last 50 years was the concurrent increase and then reduction in the sugar challenge to the population, mitigated after the early 1970s by the preventive effect of fluoride toothpaste. The current objective was to quantify the relationship between sucrose available for consumption annually since 1948 and caries experience at 5 and 12 years. Method In a retrospective, longitudinal ecological study, cross-sectional mean dmft values at 5 years and DMFT values at 12 years in England from 1948 to 1968 and England and Wales from 1973 to 1996/97, from three series of standardised surveys, were regressed on data for the relevant years on sucrose available for consumption in the UK. Results For sucrose consumption and 5-year-old dmft, Spearman's rho was +0.62 (P<0.05) while for 12-year-old DMFT the value was +0.84 (P<0.001). For the 12 year age group, Pearson's coefficient could also be calculated (r=+0.87; P<0.001). Conclusion For several reasons caution should be used in interpreting these findings. Nevertheless they do suggest a strong positive correlation over time between dmft/DMFT and sucrose availability nationally.