Comparison of Drought Forecasting Using ARIMA and Empirical Wavelet Transform-ARIMA

被引：2

作者：

bin Shabri, Muhammad Akram ^{[1
]}

Samsudin, Ruhaidah ^{[1
]}

Ilman, Ani bin Shabri ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Teknol Malaysia, Fac Comp, Dept Software Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Johor, Malaysia

[2] Univ Teknol Malaysia, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Johor Baharu 81310, Johor, Malaysia

来源：

RECENT TRENDS IN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY | 2018年 / 5卷

关键词：

ARIMA; EWT; Wavelet; Drought forecasting; SPI; PREDICTION; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1007/978-3-319-59427-9_47

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

Drought forecasting is important in preparing for drought and its mitigation plan. This paper focuses on the investigation of ARIMA and Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT)-ARIMA in forecasting drought using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). EWT is employed to decompose the time series into 4 modes. SPI of 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months were used. The objective of this study is to compare the effectiveness of the methods in accurately forecasting drought in Arau, Malaysia. It was found that EWT-ARIMA perform better when SPI is 3, 6 or 24. EWT-ARIMA performs comparably to ARIMA when the SPI is 9 or 12.

引用

页码：449 / 458

页数：10

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