Industrial Life-Cycle and the Development of the Russian Tourism Industry

The purpose of the study presented in the paper is to highlight the influence of the microeconomic factors related to the evolutionary stage of the industry's life cycle on the industry dynamics. The authors use the example of the Russian tourism industry to show that microeconomic factors are important, along with the macroeconomic, market, and demand characteristics external to the industry. Data mining was applied to obtain data from the industrial enterprise database and Rostourism official documents since there are no regular Russian statistics on firms' exit and new entry. The authors used annual ranked listing of firms by their revenues to determine the structural indicators of the industry. The results confirm that it is important to consider not only the demand and macroeconomic indicators, which are external risks in relation to the industry, but also the internal processes at the different stages of the product cycle. In a sufficiently long period, the influence of microeconomic indicators may be no less strong than the business factors of financial risk. One should take this into consideration in econometric modeling on long time-series.