GIS-based Study on the Susceptibility of Dubai Creek (UAE) to Eutrophication

Rapid urbanization in the UAE has led to some environmental implications, one of which concerns Dubai Creek - a major attraction in the city of Dubai. The creek's water quality monitoring program showed increased concentrations of phosphorus-and nitrogen-based nutrients starting in 2008 and 2009. The creek has since been through redundant eutrophication, which has been attributed to the high levels of nutrients in addition to the creek's poor flushing and irregular circulation processes. The aim of this study was to (a) assess the susceptibility of the creek to eutrophication considering its principal factors, and (b) to identify the pattern of this process (i.e., seasonal, cyclic, etc.). Principal component analysis was used to identify the principal factors from nitrates, phosphates, total nitrogen, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity, which were collected as quarterly averages in 2012 and 2013. Logistic regression was utilized to assess the susceptibility of the creek to eutrophication considering the principal factors obtained by PCA. The analysis showed that three different factors, which included at least nitrates or phosphates, have contributed to eutrophication in every quarter of the year in the period of study. Further analysis showed weak correlation between principal factors of eutrophication in consecutive quarters. However, strong correlations were observed between these factors when the same quarters over the period of the study were considered, suggesting a possible seasonal pattern.