Modeling total lifecycle ownership cost of battery electric vehicle based on urban traffic data in China

ROEWE E50, JAC iev4, ZOYTE 5008EV, and BYD E6 battery electric vehicles are being demonstrated in 25 cities of different scale represented by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hefei. This article presented four battery electric vehicles total lifecycle ownership cost model based on urban driving cycles and traffic data of that three cities. Five scenarios were given about basic, local government subsidy, battery price decreasing, gasoline price increasing, and battery price decreasing with gasoline price increasing and an analysis was made of battery electric vehicles' market competitiveness during 15 years nominal lifecycle. The results show that the high purchase cost is the biggest obstacle factor for battery electric vehicle commercialization. Within battery price decreasing scenario and gasoline price increasing scenario, battery electric vehicles under (sic)150,000 have competitiveness. When battery price decreases with the increase in gasoline price both under optimistic scenarios, battery electric vehicles under (sic)200,000 will be more competitive than Conventional Vehicles. The sensitive factors to battery electric vehicles total ownership cost in proper sequence are battery cycle life, local government subsidy, power consumption, average daily mileage, battery price, and charging price. This article suggests that battery electric vehicles with different battery capacities such as 30, 25, and 20 kWh are suitable for use in metropolitan, large-and medium-sized, and medium-and small-sized cities, represented by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hefei.