VARIATION OF LATENT HEAT FLUX OVER THE BENGAL BAY-SOUTH CHINA SEA AREA AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

Based on the satellite remote data from Special Sensor Microwave Images (SSM/I) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the oceanic and atmospheric parameters are retrieved through the method of neural network. And then the surface latent and sensible heat flux have been computed by the advanced method of COARE3.0 bulk algorithm. Correlation analysis between air-sea latent heat flux in the Bengal Bay-South China Sea area and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2012. The forecast is that the onset date in 2012 will be 2 pentads later.