Model of Forecasting Travel Demand of Cars That Operate on The Urban Road in Peak-hour in The Long-term

With the continuous development of socioeconomic, more and more people choose to trip by cars. Paper creatively proposes the conception of car traffic resource. Combining the characteristic of each of several factors that influence on the estimation of the trip demand of cars that operate on the urban road in peak-hour in the long-term, it identifies six main factors from the large numbers of factors with the use of the method of probability and statistic and establishes the forecasting model based on the reliability forecasting model of formula of deviation transmission. At last, paper derives the estimated result based on the given reliability level and the range of the estimated result.