ESTIMATES OF DYNAMICS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND OF ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

Economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards in most countries, but the incertitude regarding the duration or the evolution of the crisis persist. Under the pressure of the Covid-19 pandemic expansion, today it is supposed that a huge global crisis will follow in all fields (humanitarian, social, economic). The pandemic impact is difficult to be evaluated until it stops or at least its peak will be reached. As a contribution to such work, we propose an estimation-simulation model, as an alternative to other models coming from probabilistic, genetic algorithms or other approaches. In order to analyse the dynamics of the spread of epidemic among the population, we built a model with differential equations for a special logistic time-function, which resulted in certain key-values and four phases of its evolution. Moreover, by simulating the daily dynamics of pandemic at three levels (world, EU, and Romania) we estimated the impact of pandemic on the economic growth until the end of this year.