Banana suitability and Fusarium wilt distribution in the Philippines under climate change

Climate change is expected to affect crop production directly and indirectly due to changes in crop suitability, decrease in productivity, and higher incidence of pest and diseases. In the case of banana, change in suitability and distribution of Fusarium wilt due to climate change can pose a major threat on its production system. Being a major dollar earner for the Philippines, these threats can greatly affect the country's economic and food production system. This study assessed banana suitability and the potential distribution of Fusarium wilt in the Philippines under current and future climate condition using fuzzy logic and maximum entropy approach. Based on the results, climate change might have limited impact on banana suitability in the country. But the projected changes in rainfall in the future can increase the areas that are favorable for Fusarium wilt occurrence. From 21% under baseline climate condition, favorable areas for Fusarium wilt in the Philippines is estimated to increase to 27% covering 91.2% and 28.5% of the country's highly and moderately suitable areas for banana, respectively. Such coverage accounts for approximately 67% of the country's total harvested area for banana.