tornado;
damage;
normalization;
economics;
United States;
D O I:
10.1080/17477891.2012.738642
中图分类号:
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号:
08 ;
0830 ;
摘要:
In 2011, thunderstorms in the United States resulted in 550 deaths from tornadoes and more than $28 billion in property damage, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with the vast majority of economic losses resulting from tornadoes. This article normalizes U.S. tornado damage from 1950 to 2011, using several methods. A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if past events occurred under a common base year's societal conditions. We normalize for changes in inflation and wealth at the national level and changes in population, income and housing units at the county level. Under several methods, there has been a sharp decline in tornado damage. This decline corresponds with a decline in the reported frequency of the most intense (and thus most damaging) tornadoes since 1950. However, quantification of trends in tornado incidence is made difficult due to discontinuities in the reporting of events over time. The normalized damage results are suggestive that some part of this decline may reflect actual changes in tornado incidence, beyond changes in reporting practices. In historical context, 2011 stands out as one of the most damaging years of the past 61 years and provides an indication that maximum damage levels have the potential to increase should societal change lead to increasing exposure of wealth and property.
机构:
Univ St Andrews, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews KY16 9AL, Fife, ScotlandUniv St Andrews, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews KY16 9AL, Fife, Scotland
Slater, Louise J.
Singer, Michael Bliss
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机构:
Univ St Andrews, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews KY16 9AL, Fife, Scotland
Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Earth Res Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USAUniv St Andrews, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews KY16 9AL, Fife, Scotland