Estimating the effective nitrogen import: An example for the North Sea-Baltic Sea boundary

Semienclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea are prone to eutrophication problems. If local nutrient abatement measures are taken to tackle these problems, their success may be limited if a strong nutrient exchange with the adjacent waters exists. The quantification of this exchange is therefore essential to estimate its impact on the ecosystem status. At the example of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, we illustrate that neither gross transports nor net transports of nutrients have a strong informative value in this context. Instead, we define an effective import as the import of nutrients which have not been inside the Baltic Sea before and estimate it in an ecological model with a nutrient-tagging technique. This effective import of bioreactive nitrogen from the Skagerrak to the Kattegat amounts to 103kt/yr; from Kattegat to Belt Sea it is 54kt/yr. The nitrogen exchange is therefore 30% stronger than other estimates, e.g., based on import in the deep water, suggest. An isolated view on the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in terms of eutrophication, as it is practiced in management today, is therefore questionable. Nitrogen imported from the North Sea typically spreads eastward up to the Bornholm Basin but can be transported into the deep waters of the Gotland Basin during Major Baltic Inflows in a significant amount.