Planning Flood Risk Infrastructure Development under Climate Change Uncertainty

Policymakers and engineers today are faced with a difficult task of planning for large scale infrastructure that can cater to the climatic and socio-economic changes that the future will bring. As the performance of these large infrastructure systems is sensitive to uncertain climatic parameters, it becomes difficult to "lock-in" a particular capital intensive and rigid infrastructure system as the best solution to tackle climate change. To address this problem, a new approach based on adaptation pathways and adaptive policy making approach is increasingly gaining traction. It enables decision makers and engineers to address unforeseen uncertainties by adapting the system consistently to new futures as they unfold. Albeit this approach provides an overview of the different available options, it does not help to choose the best pathway that should be followed in current time to deal with uncertainty. This study extends this approach; by identifying the preferred pathway that should be selected from the range of possible developed pathways. The methodology employed also highlights the benefits of using Real Options Assessment as a valuation tool capable of quantifying the value of flexibility that new design concepts instil in infrastructure systems. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.