A Bayesian Model for Optimum Supply of Spare Parts

The need to have a stock of spare parts in a production company is very important in order to contract a continuity of service assurance. The costs of the stock are the costs of ownership, the costs of purchases and the costs of breaking the stock. In summary, the estimation of the needs of the stock is done mostly through quantitative methods while minimizing the costs. In this paper, we will first present our Bayesian model developed taking into account the obsolescence risk that is related to the life of parts, in order to determine the combination of new and recycled parts in quantities. After, we will expose some of the decision results of the simulation in order to clarify the operation of the bayesian networks. Finally, we will compare our model with the existing reference model and the bootstrap method for the purpose to see the influence of the parameters considered.