Differential impact on suicide mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Objectives: To compare suicide rates observed in Brazil after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic with the estimated rate based on suicide deaths between 2010 and 2020, and identify socio-demographic variables associated with this outcome. Methods: Ecological time-series study. Data were obtained from Brazilian Unified Health System Department of Information Technology (DATASUS), with the structural break of the data set in March 2020. The number of actual suicides observed and the number of expected suicides if there were no COVID-19 pandemic were analyzed through bayesian structural time series modeling. Results: The overall incidence of suicides in Brazil remained stable after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to what would be expected. However, there was a significant increase in suicide deaths among women (6.9%) and older adult (9.1%). Analysis by macro-regions of the country showed significant increases in suicide deaths in the Center-West (7.4%), Northeast (5.7%), and Southeast (10%). Stratified analyses revealed differences according to age, sex, education, and skin color. Conclusions: Despite stability in the overall number of suicides, this phenomenon occurs heterogeneously among different population groups and regions of Brazil. Rates have increased in populations with a history of poor access to health, which may have been more severely impacted by the pandemic.