Emission Scenarios and Health Impacts of Air Pollutants in Goa

This paper presents the first emission inventory for the highly urbanized state of Goa in India, which is an important international tourist destination and also accommodates significant industrial activities, including mining. The observed concentrations of the pollutants like PM10 and PM2.5 show violations at many locations. Sectoral inventories prepared in this study depicts mining (38%), industries (24%), and transport (10% tail-pipe and 15% road dust) as the major contributors to the PM10 emissions in the state. Higher emissions intensity is observed in heavily populated and industrialized coastal taluks and mining dominated taluks. Emissions are projected for the future (2030) under two different scenarios (business as usual and alternative) to assess future air quality and impacts. The grid-wise emissions under these future scenarios are fed into an air quality model, to estimate spatial distribution of PM10 concentrations in Goa. The model results are validated with actual observations. Thereafter, the grid-wise PM10 concentrations are overlaid on the population to compute its health impacts using established dose response functions. The study shows that PM10 accounts for 2.6% of mortalities in Goa, which are expected to go up further in a business as usual scenario. Alternative strategies which show reduction in pollution and associated health impacts in the region are evaluated. Based on the alternative scenario, key recommendations are made for air quality improvement in the state.