Comparison of a post-closure transient criticality model with the Oklo natural reactors

In support of the disposal system safety case for a geological disposal facility (GDF) there is a requirement to consider 'what-if' hypothetical scenarios for post-closure nuclear criticality. Although all such scenarios are considered very unlikely, one 'what-if' scenario is the mobilization of fissile material from a number of waste packages and its slow accumulation within the GDF or the immediate surroundings. Should sufficient fissile material accumulate a quasi-steady-state (QSS) transient criticality event could result. A computer model has been developed to understand the evolution and consequences of such an event. Since a postulated QSS criticality could persist for many millennia, building confidence in the modelling approach is difficult. However, the Oklo natural reactors in Africa operated for similar durations around two billion years ago, providing a natural analogue for comparison. This paper describes the modelling approach, its application to hypothetical criticality events for a GDF, and how the model can be compared to Oklo. The model results are found to be in agreement with the observational evidence from Oklo, building confidence in the use of the QSS model to simulate postulated post-closure criticality events in GDFs.