Analysis of the impact of population ageing and territorial factors on crosstown roads safety: the Spanish case study

The recent spike in the accident rate of urban Spanish roads, after years of negative growth, has been accompanied by a serious increase in accidents in a specific type of road: crosstown roads (called "travesias" in Spanish). Thus, in 2013, there was a 47% increase in accidents with casualties in these routes over 2012 data; in 2014, an 88% increase over the previous year and, although 2015 data reflect a slight decline (-3%), figures are still worrying. Moreover, these routes have always shown a higher fatality rate than the rest of urban roads. The road safety analysis of these routes is complicated due to the diversity of the features, the dispersion of the data and the complete lack of related literature. The main target of this paper is the road safety characterization of these specific routes in order to explain why the accidents in these routes happen, their severity and their relation with the ageing process in Spain, where in 2012 the population over 65 years old was 17%, this ratio being even higher in small cities. Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT) provided database (2006-2013) on accident statistics and the methodology was focused on cluster analysis, identifying 3 homogeneous groups of crosstown roads. With the final clusters, different behaviour patterns towards road safety were modelled and analysed, paying special attention to "vulnerable road users" (according to DGT definition). Results revealed the clear influence of the age variable in two of the clusters, but also some shortcomings in the database, which collects information on some routes that do not fulfil the conditions to be considered "passing routes". (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.