District House Price Movements in England and Wales 1997-2007: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach

Using exploratory spatial data analysis and house price data from local authority districts in England and Wales, this article considers whether a regional ripple effect can be tracked at the district level. Although spatial house price variation has been explored at a sub-regional level, this is possibly the first paper to attempt to track house price spillover between districts on a national basis. High- and low-growth clusters of areas are traced. It is concluded that spatial spillover of house price growth is unlikely to be based on interlocked markets bonded by commuting or migration alone; information flows and expectations are likely to reinforce interdistrict transmission. Specifically, house price spillover north of the East Midlands appears much more rapid than would be consistent with a 'ripple', suggesting that there is some support for undertaking British housing market analysis on a spatially segmented basis, even at a regional level.