HIV-1 strategies of immune evasion

We simulate the progression of the HFV-1 infection in untreated host organisms. The phenotype features of the virus are represented by the replication rate, the probability of activating the transcription, the mutation rate and the capacity to stimulate an immune response (the so-called immunogenicity). It is very difficult to study in-vivo or in-vitro how these characteristics of the virus influence the evolution of the disease. Therefore we resorted to simulations based on a computer model validated in previous studies. We observe, by means of computer experiments, that the virus continuously evolves under the selective pressure of an immune response whose effectiveness downgrades along with the disease progression. The results of the simulations show that immunogenicity is the most important factor in determining the rate of disease progression but, by itself, it is not sufficient to drive the disease to a conclusion in all cases.