Cross validation of USARIEM heat strain prediction models

Hypothesis: This study was a cross validation of three heat strain prediction models developed at the U.S. Army Research institute of Environmental Medicine: the ARIEM, HSDA, and ARIEM-EXP models ability to predict core temperature. Methods: Seven heat-acclimated subjects completed twelve experimental tests, six in each of two hot climates, at three exercise intensities and two uniform configurations in each climate. Results: Experimental results showed physiological responses as expected with heat strain increasing with work load and level of protective clothing, but with similar heat strain between the two environments matched for wet bulb, globe index. Neither the ARIEM or HSDA model closely predicted core temperatures over the course of the experiment, due mostly to an abrupt initial rise in core temperature in both models. A proportionality constant in the ARIEM-EXP buffered some of this abrupt rise. Conclusions: Comparisons of the core temperature and tolerance times data with the three models led to the conclusions that for healthy males: 1) the ARIEM and HSDA models provide conservative safety limits as a result of predicting rapid initial increases in core temperature; 2) the ARIEM-EXP most closely represents core temperature responses; 3) the ARIEM-EXP requires modifications with an alternate proportionality coefficient to increase accuracy for low metabolic cost exercise; 4) all of the models require additional input from existing research on tolerance to heat strain to better predict tolerance times; and 5) additional models should be examined to investigate the transient state of the body as it is affected by environment, clothing and exercise.